Lorenzo Trippa, PhD

Lorenzo Trippa, PhD

Contact Information

Office Phone Number



Lorenzo Trippa, PhD

Lorenzo Trippa, PhD, is an Associate Professor in the Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology at Dana-Farber, and an Associate Professor in the Department of Biostatistics at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. His research interests include clinical trials design; Bayesian nonparametrics; the development of prediction models in personalized medicine; computational methods for Bayesian adaptive designs; computational methods for Bayesian inference; and meta-analyses in personalized medicine. Trippa is a winner of the Savage PhD Thesis Award from the International Society for Bayesian Analysis. He holds a PhD in Statistics from Bocconi University, Milan, Italy, and an MS in Statistics (cum laude) from Milan’s Bicocca University.



Associate Professor, Harvard University
Co-Director, Program in Regulatory Science


    My research is focused on the following topics: Clinical Trials Design, Bayesian Nonparametrics, Development of Prediction Models in Personalized Medicine, Computational Methods for Bayesian Inference, Meta Analyses in Personalized Medicine

    Research Departments


      • Inaugural Results of the Individualized Screening Trial of Innovative Glioblastoma Therapy: A Phase II Platform Trial for Newly Diagnosed Glioblastoma Using Bayesian Adaptive Randomization. J Clin Oncol. 2023 Sep 18; JCO2300493. View in: Pubmed

      • External Control Arms and Data Analysis Methods in Nonrandomized Trial of Patients With Glioblastoma. JAMA Oncol. 2023 07 01; 9(7):1006-1007. View in: Pubmed

      • Looking ahead in early-phase trial design to improve the drug development process: examples in oncology. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2023 Jun 29; 23(1):151. View in: Pubmed

      • Accessible Data Collections for Improved Decision Making in Neuro-Oncology Clinical Trials. Clin Cancer Res. 2023 06 13; 29(12):2194-2198. View in: Pubmed

      • Comment: Advancing Clinical Trials with Novel Designs and Implementations. Stat Sci. 2023 May; 38(2):216-218. View in: Pubmed

      • Personalised progression prediction in patients with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance or smouldering multiple myeloma (PANGEA): a retrospective, multicohort study. Lancet Haematol. 2023 Mar; 10(3):e203-e212. View in: Pubmed

      • Combining Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models. Cancers (Basel). 2023 Feb 08; 15(4). View in: Pubmed

      • Validation of Predictive Analyses for Interim Decisions in Clinical Trials. JCO Precis Oncol. 2023 02; 7:e2200606. View in: Pubmed

      • Prospectively shared control data across concurrent randomised clinical trials. Eur J Cancer. 2023 03; 181:18-20. View in: Pubmed

      • Immune biomarkers of response to immunotherapy in patients with high-risk smoldering myeloma. Cancer Cell. 2022 11 14; 40(11):1358-1373.e8. View in: Pubmed

      • The design and evaluation of hybrid controlled trials that leverage external data and randomization. Nat Commun. 2022 10 02; 13(1):5783. View in: Pubmed

      • A validation of models for prediction of pathogenic variants in mismatch repair genes. Genet Med. 2022 10; 24(10):2155-2166. View in: Pubmed

      • Novel Clinical Trial Designs in Neuro-Oncology. Neurotherapeutics. 2022 10; 19(6):1844-1854. View in: Pubmed

      • Designing and conducting adaptive trials to evaluate interventions in health services and implementation research: practical considerations. BMJ Med. 2022; 1(1). View in: Pubmed

      • Genetic subtypes of smoldering multiple myeloma are associated with distinct pathogenic phenotypes and clinical outcomes. Nat Commun. 2022 06 15; 13(1):3449. View in: Pubmed

      • Empirical Evaluations of Clinical Trial Designs. JAMA Netw Open. 2022 05 02; 5(5):e2211620. View in: Pubmed

      • Clonal hematopoiesis is associated with increased risk of progression of asymptomatic Waldenström macroglobulinemia. Blood Adv. 2022 04 12; 6(7):2230-2235. View in: Pubmed

      • Prevalence of monoclonal gammopathies and clinical outcomes in a high-risk US population screened by mass spectrometry: a multicentre cohort study. Lancet Haematol. 2022 May; 9(5):e340-e349. View in: Pubmed

      • Approximating the Operating Characteristics of Bayesian Uncertainty Directed Trial Designs. J Stat Plan Inference. 2022 Dec; 221:90-99. View in: Pubmed

      • A Bayesian Multi-Outcome Analysis of Fine Particulate Matter and Cardiorespiratory Hospitalizations. Epidemiology. 2022 03 01; 33(2):176-184. View in: Pubmed

      • Cardiac outcomes of subjects on adjuvant trastuzumab emtansine vs paclitaxel in combination with trastuzumab for stage I HER2-positive breast cancer (ATEMPT) study (TBCRC033): a randomized controlled trial. NPJ Breast Cancer. 2022 Feb 16; 8(1):18. View in: Pubmed

      • The use of external control data for predictions and futility interim analyses in clinical trials. Neuro Oncol. 2022 02 01; 24(2):247-256. View in: Pubmed

      • Attenuated response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in patients with asymptomatic precursor stages of multiple myeloma and Waldenstrom macroglobulinemia. Cancer Cell. 2022 01 10; 40(1):6-8. View in: Pubmed

      • Inference in response-adaptive clinical trials when the enrolled population varies over time. Biometrics. 2023 03; 79(1):381-393. View in: Pubmed

      • Leveraging external data in the design and analysis of clinical trials in neuro-oncology. Lancet Oncol. 2021 10; 22(10):e456-e465. View in: Pubmed

      • Evaluating newly approved drugs for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (endTB): study protocol for an adaptive, multi-country randomized controlled trial. Trials. 2021 Sep 25; 22(1):651. View in: Pubmed

      • Prospective Study Testing a Simplified Paclitaxel Premedication Regimen in Patients with Early Breast Cancer. Oncologist. 2021 11; 26(11):927-933. View in: Pubmed

      • Nivolumab in combination with cabozantinib for metastatic triple-negative breast cancer: a phase II and biomarker study. NPJ Breast Cancer. 2021 Aug 25; 7(1):110. View in: Pubmed

      • Integration of survival data from multiple studies. Biometrics. 2021 Jun 30. View in: Pubmed

      • KMDATA: a curated database of reconstructed individual patient-level data from 153 oncology clinical trials. Database (Oxford). 2021 06 26; 2021. View in: Pubmed

      • Adjuvant Trastuzumab Emtansine Versus Paclitaxel in Combination With Trastuzumab for Stage I HER2-Positive Breast Cancer (ATEMPT): A Randomized Clinical Trial. J Clin Oncol. 2021 07 20; 39(21):2375-2385. View in: Pubmed

      • Impact of HER2 Heterogeneity on Treatment Response of Early-Stage HER2-Positive Breast Cancer: Phase II Neoadjuvant Clinical Trial of T-DM1 Combined with Pertuzumab. Cancer Discov. 2021 10; 11(10):2474-2487. View in: Pubmed

      • Assessment of Simulated SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Mortality Risk Associated With Radiation Therapy Among Patients in 8 Randomized Clinical Trials. JAMA Netw Open. 2021 03 01; 4(3):e213304. View in: Pubmed

      • The effects of releasing early results from ongoing clinical trials. Nat Commun. 2021 02 05; 12(1):801. View in: Pubmed

      • Rationale and design of the Novel Uses of adaptive Designs to Guide provider Engagement in Electronic Health Records (NUDGE-EHR) pragmatic adaptive randomized trial: a trial protocol. Implement Sci. 2021 01 07; 16(1):9. View in: Pubmed

      • Reply to "Keynote 48: Is it really for everyone?" Oral Oncol. 2021 04; 115:105108. View in: Pubmed

      • Meta-Analysis of PD-L1 Expression As a Predictor of Survival After Checkpoint Blockade. JCO Precis Oncol. 2020 Nov; 4:1196-1206. View in: Pubmed

      • Effect of Eribulin With or Without Pembrolizumab on Progression-Free Survival for Patients With Hormone Receptor-Positive, ERBB2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer: A Randomized Clinical Trial. JAMA Oncol. 2020 10 01; 6(10):1598-1605. View in: Pubmed

      • Oncotype DX testing in node-positive breast cancer strongly impacts chemotherapy use at a comprehensive cancer center. Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2021 Jan; 185(1):215-227. View in: Pubmed

      • TBCRC 030: a phase II study of preoperative cisplatin versus paclitaxel in triple-negative breast cancer: evaluating the homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) biomarker. Ann Oncol. 2020 11; 31(11):1518-1525. View in: Pubmed

      • Shared and Usable Data From Phase 1 Oncology Trials-An Unmet Need. JAMA Oncol. 2020 07 01; 6(7):980-981. View in: Pubmed

      • Optimality of testing procedures for survival data in the nonproportional hazards setting. Biometrics. 2021 06; 77(2):587-598. View in: Pubmed

      • Clonal hematopoiesis is associated with adverse outcomes in multiple myeloma patients undergoing transplant. Nat Commun. 2020 06 12; 11(1):2996. View in: Pubmed

      • Phase I dose-escalation trial of tucatinib in combination with trastuzumab in patients with HER2-positive breast cancer brain metastases. Ann Oncol. 2020 09; 31(9):1231-1239. View in: Pubmed

      • Genomic Profiling of Smoldering Multiple Myeloma Identifies Patients at a High Risk of Disease Progression. J Clin Oncol. 2020 07 20; 38(21):2380-2389. View in: Pubmed

      • Prediction of Outcomes with a Computational Biology Model in Newly Diagnosed Glioblastoma Patients Treated with Radiation Therapy and Temozolomide. Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys. 2020 11 01; 108(3):716-724. View in: Pubmed

      • Keynote 48: Is it really for everyone? Oral Oncol. 2020 06; 105:104762. View in: Pubmed

      • A Quantitative Framework for Modeling COVID-19 Risk During Adjuvant Therapy Using Published Randomized Trials of Glioblastoma in the Elderly. Neuro Oncol. 2020 Apr 27. View in: Pubmed

      • Avoiding Peg-Filgrastim Prophylaxis During the Paclitaxel Portion of the Dose-Dense Doxorubicin-Cyclophosphamide and Paclitaxel Regimen: A Prospective Study. J Clin Oncol. 2020 07 20; 38(21):2390-2397. View in: Pubmed

      • Sensitive Detection of Minimal Residual Disease in Patients Treated for Early-Stage Breast Cancer. Clin Cancer Res. 2020 06 01; 26(11):2556-2564. View in: Pubmed

      • Pathologic Complete Response after Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy and Impact on Breast Cancer Recurrence and Survival: A Comprehensive Meta-analysis. Clin Cancer Res. 2020 06 15; 26(12):2838-2848. View in: Pubmed

      • A Phase II Study of Pembrolizumab in Combination With Palliative Radiotherapy for Hormone Receptor-positive Metastatic Breast Cancer. Clin Breast Cancer. 2020 06; 20(3):238-245. View in: Pubmed

      • Identifying ERBB2 Activating Mutations in HER2-Negative Breast Cancer: Clinical Impact of Institute-Wide Genomic Testing and Enrollment in Matched Therapy Trials. JCO Precis Oncol. 2019; 3. View in: Pubmed

      • To randomize, or not to randomize, that is the question: using data from prior clinical trials to guide future designs. Neuro Oncol. 2019 10 09; 21(10):1239-1249. View in: Pubmed

      • Phase I/II trial of the CXCR4 inhibitor plerixafor in combination with bortezomib as a chemosensitization strategy in relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma. Am J Hematol. 2019 11; 94(11):1244-1253. View in: Pubmed

      • A phase II study of cabozantinib alone or in combination with trastuzumab in breast cancer patients with brain metastases. Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2020 Jan; 179(1):113-123. View in: Pubmed

      • Lessons Learned from Deescalation Trials in Favorable Risk HPV-Associated Squamous Cell Head and Neck Cancer-A Perspective on Future Trial Designs. Clin Cancer Res. 2019 12 15; 25(24):7281-7286. View in: Pubmed

      • Deviation from the Proportional Hazards Assumption in Randomized Phase 3 Clinical Trials in Oncology: Prevalence, Associated Factors, and Implications. Clin Cancer Res. 2019 11 01; 25(21):6339-6345. View in: Pubmed

      • Frequentist operating characteristics of Bayesian optimal designs via simulation. Stat Med. 2019 09 20; 38(21):4026-4039. View in: Pubmed

      • Design and Evaluation of an External Control Arm Using Prior Clinical Trials and Real-World Data. Clin Cancer Res. 2019 08 15; 25(16):4993-5001. View in: Pubmed

      • Divining responder populations from survival data. Ann Oncol. 2019 06 01; 30(6):1005-1013. View in: Pubmed

      • Ribociclib Plus Trastuzumab in Advanced HER2-Positive Breast Cancer: Results of a Phase 1b/2 Trial. Clin Breast Cancer. 2019 12; 19(6):399-404. View in: Pubmed

      • Progression Risk Stratification of Asymptomatic Waldenström Macroglobulinemia. J Clin Oncol. 2019 06 01; 37(16):1403-1411. View in: Pubmed

      • Individualized Screening Trial of Innovative Glioblastoma Therapy (INSIGhT): A Bayesian Adaptive Platform Trial to Develop Precision Medicines for Patients With Glioblastoma. JCO Precis Oncol. 2019; 3. View in: Pubmed

      • Multi-study factor analysis. Biometrics. 2019 03; 75(1):337-346. View in: Pubmed

      • Bayesian adaptive design: the future for regional anesthesia trials? Reg Anesth Pain Med. 2019 Mar 02. View in: Pubmed

      • Bayesian Adaptive Randomization in Dose-Finding Trials. JAMA Netw Open. 2018 12 07; 1(8):e186075. View in: Pubmed

      • Bortezomib overcomes the negative impact of CXCR4 mutations on survival of Waldenstrom macroglobulinemia patients. Blood. 2018 12 13; 132(24):2608-2612. View in: Pubmed

      • The clinical trials landscape for glioblastoma: is it adequate to develop new treatments? Neuro Oncol. 2018 07 05; 20(8):1034-1043. View in: Pubmed

      • Efficient computation of the joint probability of multiple inherited risk alleles from pedigree data. Genet Epidemiol. 2018 09; 42(6):528-538. View in: Pubmed

      • A phase 2 study of modified lenalidomide, bortezomib and dexamethasone in transplant-ineligible multiple myeloma. Br J Haematol. 2018 07; 182(2):222-230. View in: Pubmed

      • Adding experimental arms to platform clinical trials: randomization procedures and interim analyses. Biostatistics. 2018 04 01; 19(2):199-215. View in: Pubmed

      • Hazards of Hazard Ratios - Deviations from Model Assumptions in Immunotherapy. N Engl J Med. 2018 03 22; 378(12):1158-1159. View in: Pubmed

      • Leveraging molecular datasets for biomarker-based clinical trial design in glioblastoma. Neuro Oncol. 2017 Jul 01; 19(7):908-917. View in: Pubmed

      • Designing Clinical Trials That Accept New Arms: An Example in Metastatic Breast Cancer. J Clin Oncol. 2017 Sep 20; 35(27):3160-3168. View in: Pubmed

      • Feasibility of Ultra-High-Throughput Functional Screening of Melanoma Biopsies for Discovery of Novel Cancer Drug Combinations. Clin Cancer Res. 2017 Aug 15; 23(16):4680-4692. View in: Pubmed

      • Bayesian Nonparametric Ordination for the Analysis of Microbial Communities. J Am Stat Assoc. 2017; 112(520):1430-1442. View in: Pubmed

      • Bayesian response-adaptive designs for basket trials. Biometrics. 2017 09; 73(3):905-915. View in: Pubmed

      • Prognostic role of circulating exosomal miRNAs in multiple myeloma. Blood. 2017 04 27; 129(17):2429-2436. View in: Pubmed

      • Bayesian Baskets: A Novel Design for Biomarker-Based Clinical Trials. J Clin Oncol. 2017 Feb 20; 35(6):681-687. View in: Pubmed

      • Bayesian adaptive randomization in a clinical trial to identify new regimens for MDR-TB: the endTB trial. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 2016 12 01; 20(12):8-12. View in: Pubmed

      • A Bayesian response-adaptive trial in tuberculosis: The endTB trial. Clin Trials. 2017 Feb; 14(1):17-28. View in: Pubmed

      • Robust lineage reconstruction from high-dimensional single-cell data. Nucleic Acids Res. 2016 08 19; 44(14):e122. View in: Pubmed

      • Mitigating Bias in Generalized Linear Mixed Models: The Case for Bayesian Nonparametrics. Stat Sci. 2016 Feb; 31(1):80-95. View in: Pubmed

      • Optimal Bayesian adaptive trials when treatment efficacy depends on biomarkers. Biometrics. 2016 06; 72(2):414-21. View in: Pubmed

      • On the restricted mean survival time curve in survival analysis. Biometrics. 2016 Mar; 72(1):215-21. View in: Pubmed

      • Unbiased estimation for response adaptive clinical trials. Stat Methods Med Res. 2017 Oct; 26(5):2376-2388. View in: Pubmed

      • Getting it first versus getting it right: weighing the value of and evidence for progression-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in glioblastoma. Neuro Oncol. 2015 May; 17(5):765-6. View in: Pubmed

      • Clinical implementation of integrated whole-genome copy number and mutation profiling for glioblastoma. Neuro Oncol. 2015 Oct; 17(10):1344-55. View in: Pubmed

      • Combining progression-free survival and overall survival as a novel composite endpoint for glioblastoma trials. Neuro Oncol. 2015 Aug; 17(8):1106-13. View in: Pubmed

      • Bifurcation analysis of single-cell gene expression data reveals epigenetic landscape. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2014 Dec 30; 111(52):E5643-50. View in: Pubmed

      • A toolbox for spatiotemporal analysis of voltage-sensitive dye imaging data in brain slices. PLoS One. 2014; 9(9):e108686. View in: Pubmed

      • Bayesian designs and the control of frequentist characteristics: a practical solution. Biometrics. 2015 Mar; 71(1):218-226. View in: Pubmed

      • Brain Malignancy Steering Committee clinical trials planning workshop: report from the Targeted Therapies Working Group. Neuro Oncol. 2015 Feb; 17(2):180-8. View in: Pubmed

      • Subgroup-Based Adaptive (SUBA) Designs for Multi-Arm Biomarker Trials. Stat Biosci. 2016 Jun; 8(1):159-180. View in: Pubmed

      • Cross-study validation for the assessment of prediction algorithms. Bioinformatics. 2014 Jun 15; 30(12):i105-12. View in: Pubmed

      • Progression-free survival: too much risk, not enough reward? Neuro Oncol. 2014 May; 16(5):615-6. View in: Pubmed

      • Risk prediction for late-stage ovarian cancer by meta-analysis of 1525 patient samples. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2014 Apr 03; 106(5). View in: Pubmed

      • A comparison of Bayesian adaptive randomization and multi-stage designs for multi-arm clinical trials. Stat Med. 2014 Jun 15; 33(13):2206-21. View in: Pubmed

      • Statistical tools and R software for cancer driver probabilities. Methods Mol Biol. 2014; 1101:113-34. View in: Pubmed

      • Biomarker-based adaptive trials for patients with glioblastoma--lessons from I-SPY 2. Neuro Oncol. 2013 Aug; 15(8):972-8. View in: Pubmed

      • Reply to B. Freidlin et al. J Clin Oncol. 2013 Mar 01; 31(7):970-1. View in: Pubmed

      • Defining Predictive Probability Functions for Species Sampling Models. Stat Sci. 2013; 28(2):209-222. View in: Pubmed

      • Bayesian adaptive randomized trial design for patients with recurrent glioblastoma. J Clin Oncol. 2012 Sep 10; 30(26):3258-63. View in: Pubmed

      • Bayesian enrichment strategies for randomized discontinuation trials. Biometrics. 2012 Mar; 68(1):203-11. View in: Pubmed

      • The multivariate beta process and an extension of the Polya tree model. Biometrika. 2011 Mar; 98(1):17-34. View in: Pubmed


      Location Avtar

      Dana-Farber Cancer Institute

      450 Brookline Avenue CLS 11017 Boston, MA 02215
      Get Directions

      Dana-Farber Cancer Institute

      Location Avtar

      Dana-Farber Cancer Institute

      450 Brookline Avenue CLS 11017 Boston, MA 02215
      Get Direction
      42.3374, -71.1082

      Discovery & Insights